Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
